(ThyBlackMan.com) With history as our guide, if the elections were held today on a scale from 1 to 100, the Democrats would already have a 9 to 1 lead over former President Donald Trump. In our model, 10% would represent the Black vote and 90% would be the non-Black (predominately white) vote.
This is not based on issues or records but solely on identity politics. Can this change?
It would take a substantial white and/or Hispanic vote victory for Trump and/or a significant increase in Black support for Trump. Otherwise, we will likely have President Kamala Harris and Vice President Tim Walz.
Democrats have used Black people and have needed Black people to win elections. Democrats have not won the white vote in presidential elections since President Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Really. It is Black people that put Democrats over the top.
Here is how: In a theoretical two-way race, it would take 50+% to win. For the non-Black group, you are already down 9-1 out of 100 points. This is due to more than 90% of the Black vote going routinely to the Democrat candidate and less than 10% of the Black vote going to the Republicans. As a result, Democrats only must get another 41 points (%) to get to 50 points (%). Republicans need a whopping additional 49 points to get to 50.
If the 90% non-Black (mainly white) group gives Trump even a 6-point advantage, Trump would still lose if turnout for each group is the same. So, a comfortable 48% to 42% Trump victory among non-Black folks would still result in a 51% to 49% victory for the Democrats.
Black support for a Black candidate for president or vice president can be even higher than 90% for the Democrats. Former President Barack Obama received nearly 95% of the Black vote in his 2012 election and Biden-Harris received over 95% of the Black women vote.
Harris has been handed the nomination. For president, she did not get one vote from the rank in file registered voters in the Democrat Party. This would mark the second time she failed to get any votes in the Democratic primaries. The first time she leaped over others to get the vice president’s position. This time she was anointed by President Joe Biden and Democratic Party leaders and given the nomination for president in a matter of days. Everyone else who achieved the honor took months to accomplish it.
The so-called “democratic process” for nominating a presidential candidate in 2024 resembles what would happen for Russia’s President Vladimir Putin or China’s Xi Jinping than it would for any modern-day American president.
Even when the Democrat Party leaders had a vote, Harris was the only name on the ballot. I am sure the now deceased Cuban leader Fidel Castro would have related to this. And Putin and Xi Jinping would agree that “this is how it should be done,” I say facetiously.
Identity politics is not new.
In Booker T. Washington’s book “Up from Slavery” he said that he once asked former slaves how they would know for whom to vote. They said that upon learning what white people were going to do, they would do the opposite.
Identity politics paused for a couple of decades. In the 1950s former President Dwight D. Eisenhower in victory and Nixon in defeat both got a significant percent, but not the majority, of the Black vote.
The legendary Civil Rights leaders of the 1960s did not boast of any party affiliation and got more done for Black Americans than had ever happened previously. They helped pass laws on civil rights, voting rights, fair housing. They crushed Jim Crow segregation and racial discrimination.
Have the Democrat Party leaders done enough to deserve 90+% of the Black vote? If they did the liberal media, an appendage of the Democrat Party, would have told you so.
Here is what they will not tell the Black community, however:
Education
Republicans have made federal funding assistance for Historically Black Colleges and Universities permanent. Democrats could have done so, but they did not.
On desegregating America’s schools, Republicans have offered School Choice which was preceded by the successful creation of Magnet Schools during the Reagan Administration. Black Democrats exercise school choice for themselves but deny it for their constituents by supporting the mighty teachers’ unions that fund their campaigns.
Crime
To make sure we know exactly what happened in police encounters with suspected or actual criminals, Republican Senator Tim Scott wrote legislation to make federal funding for police body cameras available nationwide.
The Second Chance Initiative for those exiting prison was established to help reduce recidivism. It was signed into law by Trump.
Urban revitalization
When it comes to improving the conditions of our inner cities and the plight of those living in depressed areas, Democrats have missed the mark. Republicans over the decades have given us Enterprise Zones, HUBZONES, and Opportunity Zones. HUBZONES created billions of dollars of economic opportunity in depressed areas (I wrote the main parts of this legislation under the Urban Entrepreneurial Opportunities Act).
Closing the border that the so-called Border Czar Harris ignored for three years would help prevent the flow of drugs from entering America and into the hands of drug dealers, which has made gang-related murders in our cities worse. Republicans want a closed border.
Aid for the poor
It was Republicans who felt that the poor should not only not be forced to pay taxes, but they should receive a low-income tax credit. Former President Ronald Reagan signed it into law. Former President Bill Clinton signed welfare reform into law, but that was passed in Congress due to Republicans.
Civil Rights
The last civil rights bill passed Congress and was signed into law by G.H.W. Bush in 1991. It passed by the largest plurality ever, after a prior attempt had been vetoed.
War and peace
In 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait. President George H.W. Bush had General Colin Powell use excessive military force to quickly remove Iraq from Kuwait. Biden-Harris used sanctions on Russia when the latter invaded Ukraine. Sanctions have failed for two years. What we have instead are lost lives and resources that could have been better used helping Americans.
Black Democrat leaders demonize their opponents and use tribalism to keep identity politics going strong. However, the results of the Black community have been negligible.
Written by Gary Franks
Official website; https://Twitter.com/garyfranks