(ThyBlackMan.com) With the upcoming presidential election only a month away, I thought I would share some thoughts on how to interpret a lot of the things going on with this election.
I have received many calls from people asking about all the polls that show President Obama leading Mitt Romney. I am not a big believer in polls, but I do think it is safe to conclude that Obama is ahead by some measure – one can argue with the spread, but not with the fact that Obama has a lead.
My rule of thumb when it comes to polls is, if you are trying to explain why and how a poll is flawed, then you are admitting you are behind in the race. The past two weeks the Republicans have been all over the media talking about how all the polls are skewed towards Obama, trying to explain the methodology behind polling, and how previous Republicans were in similar positions to Romney.
To my good Republican friends, stop while you are behind. No one believes your spin and Mitt Romney has run the worst presidential campaign in history. If Mitt Romney and his campaign had spent as much time laying out a clear vision for his election as he has trying to explain away the polls, then maybe he would be ahead.
The second thing to look for with this election is the debates, the first of which was held Wednesday. Debates cannot help you, they can only hurt you. The problem with the Mitt Romney campaign isn’t that enough people have not heard him speak. The problem is people have heard him speak and they don’t like what he is saying.
On paper, Romney should have demolished Obama by now. Obama has been very inept in his handling of the economy and this election is well suited for someone with Romney’s background. But Democrats decided to “Swift Boat” Romney. They have been masterful in taking Romney’s strength—his business experience—and turning it into a huge liability.
This is what happens when you nominate a candidate with absolutely no core beliefs. Mitt Romney has never told the American people why he wants to be president of the U.S. If you have no core beliefs, it’s impossible for you to convince the public that you are the best man for the job. [campaign] parish.
The final thing to look for in this election is likability. A lot of the electorate is not happy with the job Obama has done, especially his mishandling of the economy, but they genuinely like him. Mitt Romney has effectively been portrayed as a rich, out of touch, elitist who doesn’t care and can’t relate to the average person. Therefore, he has very high negatives when it comes to likability.
This has led the electorate to display symptoms of cognitive dissonance. In psychology, cognitive dissonance is the inability to see what you don’t believe. Romney has much more experience in dealing with economics and job creation than Obama; but because people don’t like Romney, they are willing to vote for someone who is actually less able to handle a troubled economy.
This is the biggest problem Romney is facing. A good performance during a debate will not change this dynamic. Romney coming out with a big, bold, detailed set of policy papers, won’t help turn his campaign around.
The only thing that can help Mitt Romney is for him to drive Obama’s negatives sky high. The problem with this approach is that it will be filtered through a racial lens—since Obama is the first Black president in the history of the U.S. Unfortunately, I have already seen signs of Republicans going down this road and it’s only going to get worse.
As usual, Republicans will go too far on the race issue and it will blow up in their faces because these tactics will repulse the electorate.
Mitt Romney’s fate, in many ways, are tied to some unforeseen event that may or may not happen. His lack of any core guiding principles, high negatives, and his association with a party that has a horrible brand, have all converged to make it a huge mountain to climb. But, it has also caused people to vote in a manner that may not be in their own best interest—the inability to see what you don’t believe.
Staff Writer; Raynard Jackson
Mr. Jackson is also founder of a political and industrial consultant firm which is based in Washington, DC; Raynard Jackson & Associates.
The people who visit this site regularly, are aware of this writers motives for posting his opinions here. This is his way of self-anointing himself as an expert in Industrial and politcan affairs to anyone who reads his articles. In defense of this site and all it’s contributors, this site provides a forum for everyday people to say just what’s on their minds. The staff does’nt provide editing or fact checking, it just posts the submissions as is. On this you can find many well written and researched articles as well as some that will not meet the test of good journalism (Like mind). I look forward to the day when I see a article authored by Bootsy Collins.
Does the writers on this site actually put some research into the subjects they right on or is it all just based on feelings? These articles have been terrible of facts. I have to agree with Ms Mobetter. Romney’s record is politically fatal by itself. The campaign misques have just been lagniappe. The only reason Obama is getting any backlash for his performance is b/c we have a “microwave” culture. We expect things to happen now – instantaneous reward/recovery. It doesn’t work that way. America took 10yrs to recover after the Great Depression, but we expect miracles like our system hasn’t been flawed for 3 decades. Wake up people.
Raynard,
You neglected some important points about Mitt Romney. It is not just that people don’t him, they don’t trust him. He changes his mind about issues like a baby gets their diapers changed, several times a day. Also,Governor Mitt’s state was 47th in job creations. I fail to see how he would be any more effective in job creations for this economy. Bain investments were not meant to create jobs, but to make money. Many of the Bain jobs were outsourced. People need to trust the candidate they vote for and that is why so many people do not like Romney. That nice guy thing about President Obama was created by Republicans. They started saying “Obama’s a nice guy, but.” I never looked at President Obama and said, “Oh, he’s a nice guy, so I will vote for him.” In fact, I have not heard one supporter say, “I voted for Obama because he just a nice guy.” What’s happened to America has been forthcoming for many years. Economists have been predicting it for many years particularly with expensive wars and outsourcing. It’s a situation that will take more than four years to fix. It took over forty years to build the mess. It will take more than Romney’s business background, particularly since only 47% of the people will benefit.
Have you not seen todays updated pole results that reflect the debate bounnce for Romney
Romney 54% Obama 44% looks like the beganing of the end
The entire HOOD knows that Obama is in the White House because of symbolism. Mitt Romney should be himself and let the chips fall were they may.