(ThyBlackMan.com) The increases in African American(AA) unemployment rates are critical, as AA unemployment rates are leading indicators of the condition of the country’s economy. Normally unemployment rates are considered lagging indicators of the economy’s overall state of health. The reason for this is that lay-offs occur after conditions, such as poor product sales and major catastrophes hit the economy, not before. However, what makes the black unemployment rate a leading indicator and unique from other rates of unemployment, has to do with what actions businesses and corporations take when negative factors affect the United States economy. It is the African American unemployment rate that takes off, moving to the upside, due to businesses and corporations laying-off off African Americans first, if they foresee negative economic conditions worsening.
You see, African Americans when it comes to this economy are like canaries in a mine foretelling future lay-offs which will inevitably engulf the rest of working America. The Wiktionary (a dictionary of sorts) defines the canary in the mine concept the best. It states it is an allusion to caged canaries (birds) that miners would carry down into the mine tunnels with them. If dangerous gases such as methane or carbon monoxide leaked into the mine, the gases w
ould kill the canaries before killing the miners, thus providing a warning to exit the tunnels immediately.
We only need to go back to the 2008 Great Recession to witness such a warning of an imminent economic disaster involving rising black unemployment rates. When you look back at February 2008, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the white unemployment rate was 4.3 percent and the AA unemployment rate stood at 8.3 percent. The national rate was 4.8 percent. What we saw in March, the next month of the same year, was some separation between the black and white unemployment numbers and the signaling of the coming Great Recession. In March of 2008, the AA unemployment rate rose to 9.0 percent, while the white rate changed very little, rising to 4.5 percent.
However, by October of 2009, more than a year and seven months later, the white rate had moved up to 9.5 percent where it would top out. The AA unemployment rate was 15.7 percent. The AA unemployment rate did not top out, but continued its upward climb to 16.7 percent where it peaked in August of 2011, one year and ten months after the white rate. Thus, the rising AA unemployment rate was a good indicator of the coming downturn. By the way, other worker groups’ rates of unemployment started receding in October of 2009, while the AA unemployment rate continued its ascent. This was an indication businesses and corporations were continuing to lay-off African Americans even as they hired back other racial groups. Today, is no different; businesses and corporations are quick to lay-off African Americans to cut business cost (labor is one of the major costs of doing business) at the slightest hint of worsening economic conditions.
Now, fast forward to today and what we are seeing are similar conditions in regard to the increase in AA unemployment rates. The AA unemployment rate has begun to move higher while the national rate and white rates are holding steady. The national unemployment rate in February was 4.9 percent, and the AA unemployment rate was 8.8 percent ( same as it was In January ), per the BLS. When you look behind the top line number of 8.8 percent; you find in January the rate for black women jumped one percent and held that one percent increase into February at 7.9 percent. This meant the black women unemployment rate did not go back down after rising in January (https://thyblackman.com/2016/02/10/black-women-unemployment-rate-spikes-a-threatening-sign-for-whites/ ). In February, we saw the black male unemployment rate move higher, from 8.4 percent to 8.6 percent. Thus, we have seen two months of increases in African American unemployment rates. However this does not represent a trend, yet. It maybe said later that these rates are trending higher after examining another two months of data. Nevertheless, the fact that the AA rates are moving higher is an indication of an uneasy attitude among business and corporate owners, when it comes to this economy.
And there has not been any policy changes by the federal government to disrupt the upward movement of AA unemployment rates. You have to remember federal policymakers generally do not take action until the white rate of unemployment is affected. This could mean we could see the AA unemployment rate move higher over the coming months as businesses reduce cost. As a result, African Americans will fulfill their reputation as being the canaries in the mine.
This is why it is so important to have an active African American media. For the first time in months, Ebony’s online magazine ran two articles about black unemployment. We, as consumers of that magazine need to keep the pressure on them in this area. I’ve often complained in my articles about the lack of coverage by African American media publications when it comes to economic issues which impact black lives. Not only Ebony magazine, but other major black publications and newspapers need our scrutiny ( https://thyblackman.com/2015/09/28/ebony-black-enterprise-and-essence-magazines-are-hurting-african-americans/ ).
And to be quite frank with you, I’ve done what I’ve advised you to do in the past. I’ve gone to these publications’ web sites, copied and pasted the address of my articles and requested more coverage of meaningful economic news. So, when I see they are doing this, compliments and thanks are in order which is what I did in regard to the Ebony articles. You should do the same when you see these type articles. If we want to get a conversation going about the horrible economic state of African Americans and solutions, folks you have to physically do something to bring about that action.
You see rising African American unemployment rates will not become a national media conversation/issue until the AA unemployment rates have reached recession era rates, based on the BLS understated rates of unemployment and start to affect the rate of unemployment nationally (https://thyblackman.com/2015/11/12/the-rip-off-of-african-americans-and-the-unemployment-rates/ ). It is in the best interest of the African American community to identify this upward trend quickly and demand federal policy makers address it before it reaches that point. And one of the ways of getting that job done is to convince the AA media to start covering and explaining what’s going on in the African American community when it comes to jobs and job creation. If there is a better way, please don’t hesitate to let me know.
Staff Writer; James Davis
This talented brother is a graduate of Florida A. and M. University(FAMU), a former stockbroker, and a human rights activist who resides in Sanford, Florida. He was awarded the prestigious Governor Haydon Burns Scholarship to attend FAMU and while at FAMU was awarded the first Martin Luther King Scholarship. He is also author of three books, among them are “The Fix This Time,” Expanding Social Security Benefits to Create Jobs and Spur Demand( http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00MI3PD2M ) and “Hey…God’s Talking To You,” The Study Book ( http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00GYI3VQW ).
He can be reached through his blog @, (http://www.thefixthistime.com).
